Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19

Autores

Palavras-chave:

COVID-19, Epidemiological Models, Health Policy

Resumo

Objective: to analyze epidemic curves based on mathematical models for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission. Method: the linear, polynomial and exponential regression model was used to make the numerical adjustment of the respective curves empirical. Result: it was found that the models used describe very well the empirical curves in which they were tested. In particular, the polynomial model is able to identify with reasonable reliability the appearance of the inflection point in the accumulated curves, which corresponds to the maximum point of the respective daily curves. The analysis indicates a weak positive correlation between infection, mortality, lethality and deaths from COVID-19 with population density, as revealed by the correlation and analysis of R2Conclusion: the models are very effective in describing the COVID-19 and epidemic curves in the estimation of important epidemiological parameters, such as peak case curves and daily deaths, allowing practical and efficient monitoring of the evolution of the epidemic.

Biografia do Autor

  • Amaury de Souza, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (UFMS)

    Graduado em licenciatura em Fisica (UFSCAR), bacharelado em Fisica (USO-Sao Carlos), mestrado em meteorologia (UFV), doutorado em tecnologias ambientais (UFMS) e professor associado na UFMS

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Publicado

2021-12-01

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Artigo Original/ Original Article/ Artículo Originale

Como Citar

Generalized models and the impacts of population density on COVID-19 transmission/ Modelos generalizados y los impactos de la densidad de población en la transmisión del COVID-19/ Modelos generalizados e os impactos da densidade populacional na transmissão da COVID-19. (2021). Journal Health NPEPS, 6(2). https://periodicos.unemat.br/index.php/jhnpeps/article/view/5597

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